After a Great Run of Cold-Water Surf, Warm Waves in the Forecast for March

A long-boarder exits the pier after a late-afternoon session. Feels like spring. Photo Credit: Justin Morris/Follyhood.com

Your Ocean Surf Shop extended wave forecast for March 9–March 16.

Our National Weather Service Marine Weather Forecast calls for: "HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN RETURN SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO."

For the second week of March, we see the swell back off some to start the work week. We see small, medium-period, lazy east swell, average knee to thigh high, for Monday and Tuesday (March 9–10). Conditions should remain fairly clean, and weather should be nice and much warmer. We should see some more action later in the work week, as high pressure will wedge from the north, and a low from the Gulf of Mexico should begin to increase the pressure gradient over our marine area. This weather event is forecasted to clock winds and swell northeast on Friday into Saturday, rotating to southeast by Saturday and Sunday (March 14–15) as the low lingers near our beaches. As the low departs, swell is forecasted to stay onshore, gradually dropping Sunday into Monday. So, it looks like fun surf for Thursday–Sunday of this week, with cleaner conditions over the weekend/late in the period. 

We expect the southern jet stream to become more active in late March and for April, so this is predicted to keep low-pressure systems streaming out of the Gulf. This should keep onshore flow in our forecast (on and off) for the next several weeks. With high pressure anchoring near Bermuda, we should expect some surf over the next month, with south swells filling in every few days. The weather pattern looks good for some surf.

The days are also longer now, so most can get to Folly for that after-work surf session. And that is always a bonus.

In better news, water temps should reach the upper 50s by the end of the week as onshore flow continues. Water at the shelf is still pretty cold by average standards for this time of year. But it would seem that water temperatures are on the way up.

-Bates Hagood, Ocean Surf Shop